Ten points on what’s going on with Christmas parties, Labour and Tories this week.
1. It is a frustration of being in opposition that months and years can be spent debating and arguing about strategy but then advances can be made during events not in your control, as the governing party fouls up. The Owen Paterson fiasco was an act of pure self-sabotage. The Tories’ Christmas party chaos has not only caused them severe reputational damage, it has done so on their weak points of being out of touch, and applying different standards to others than to themselves. In the first instance any Opposition has to seize each moment as it arises, pile on the pressure and avoid major slip-ups. On that, the party’s response, with the odd misfire (such as the ‘apology’ call) has delivered.
2. Having tried and failed to get crime week going, the Tories have to now place their hopes on the corruption and Christmas party scandals dissipating over the break, with MPs dispersed and no Parliamentary set-pieces.
As the former Downing Street adviser Nick Hargrave discusses, discussion will be turning to January relaunches.
The government will want to push politics as much as possible onto Omicron and away from their own troubles, and to appear as governmental as possible. So far, that is not going well: messaging chaos over the number of hospitalisations; immediate problems with supplies of lateral flow tests; questions over the achievability of the government’s own booster targets all show a government struggling with its messaging responsibilities. Just as problematic as these is the fact that the government is severely damaged as a message-carrier for new measures when it is so compromised over its own behaviour.
The Conservatives’ objective of moving the story onto more favourable terrain may not be so easy to deliver. Although of course public attention is on other things at Christmas, it is also a period in which the Opposition can get a hearing. Labour has experienced comms staff who know how to plan attack stories over the Christmas period and it is unlikely they will not be preparing for that now.
3. The Tories will face daily growing pressure over the need for furlough arrangements as working from home knocks into the economy. Millions of workers will be affected as the consequences of the latest measures unfold. Pressure from the trade union movement will mount.
4. In London, the timing of the response to Omicron, which is leading to a renewed dip in transport ridership and therefore revenue, places yet more pressure on the government to stop penalising fare-payers and transport workers through the necessary financial settlement to Transport for London.
5. Labour can go into the Christmas period with plenty in its armoury. However, it should also be said that crises do not usually stay at their peak forever. So whilst taking all tactical openings, the Labour party still faces the need to gather together the strands of what has happened into a project with definition and narrative that solidifies its position. Although in the first instance its job has been to apply all the pressure it can, it also has some wider tasks as we move through the phases of the Tories’ crises. Labour too will need to be considering its new year interventions in order to frame things on its own terms for January. It needs to see the new year in with a renewed effort to impose a clearer framework on British politics.
6. The last time Labour was due to set out a bigger case around the government’s crisis – over the fallout of Paterson – it scuppered itself through the instigation of a reshuffle. That in turn provided another round of division about the leadership’s style and political approach.
It remains a problem for the Labour party that it is disunited and seen as such by voters. Just because the focus is now on the government does not change the fact that the party is weakened by the leadership’s unwillingness to end the war on the left.
7. It is to the Labour party’s advantage that the government’s crisis opens up the whole question of the Tories as a party, not just the errors of its leader. The Tories have been in power for close to twelve years with three Prime Ministers. The Conservative Party’s ranks are swollen with people who have strong sense of entitlement; and at the same time their long-standing election-winning domination of British politics makes them used to being in government. They are naturally complacent about it: the more the that years pass from their last period in opposition, the more natural it will to feel to them to be settled into office, enjoying the trappings that come with it, the ability to make money for themselves and their friends, relishing the access, enjoying the sense that rules apply to others, not to them. In those circumstances, their capacity to make mistakes (and for mistakes to be uncovered) is huge.
8. It’s no surprise that Boris Johnson resorted to a televised speech for his Omicron announcements, with no facility for the Lobby to ask questions. One of his first acts as Mayor of London was to abolish weekly press conferences. He may be famous for lies and broken promises, but in dodging accountability from the media when it suits him, he is extremely consistent.
9. It is worth noting the role that has been played by the Daily Mirror during the Tories’ difficulties during the pandemic. It has shown real verve in its coverage and broken major stories – from Dominic Cummings in Barnard Castle through to Johnson’s own involvement with the Downing Street quiz. The Mirror is going through very strong phase as a paper of serious political coverage.
10. A small Labour Party footnote. It has been reported that the former deputy director of the Labour-right Progress grouping, Matt Faulding, is to work for the Labour party on preparations for selections. One to watch.